The Trifecta That Will Take Nigeria Back

The Trifecta That Will Take Nigeria Back

Recently, yours truly and two other colleagues with whom I had done some pro democracy work in the past came together to start work on a project on how to reclaim Nigeria back to its rightful owners. Amongst us, you will find a local businessman, an IT administrator and an attorney. What binds us together is not just our resumes but our passion for Nigeria. But this piece is not about us, it is more about the men and women who make up the Trifecta of those who will eventually take Nigeria back. The civil society, the military and paramilitary society and the traditional institutions.

The civil society has being for the most part in the vanguard of promoting democracy in Nigeria. For as long as we can remember, the civil society has being very engaged but it is my opinion that the civil society has been equally unforgiving of those it deemed to have gone astray of its unspoken principles and ideals. It is the intention of this essay to address that malaise and to point out that there is a need to reconcile the different ideologies out there in order to reclaim Nigeria.

For the past several decades, there has been a theory out there that entrenched Nigeria elites are working in concert with one another to keep ordinary Nigerians in perpetual poverty and that in order to reclaim Nigeria, a violent revolution is necessary. Today, I declare that assertion as idle talk! After a careful study of those who have being in government for the last ten years since the return of civil rule in Nigeria, I realized sadly that rather than a team of entrenched powerful elites working together to keep Nigeria in perpetual poverty and bondage, what we have in Nigeria today is a disparate group of people joined together by the need to protect their class interests. Most of the time, their interests are not in sync with one another but they are joined together in greed and insatiable tendencies. Among this group you will find your old friend and school mate who has gone on to become the house of representative member in Abuja, the old ideological sparring partner who has gone on to become the Minister of the Republic or a senior advisor in government. To label all these people as unpatriotic or corrupt is simplifying an otherwise complex issue. To discard them from civil discourse is even more counter productive. What we need is further engagement, those who left the civil society to join government should be engaged and given the opportunity to explain their opinions. We should make them feel comfortable to express their opinions within the civil space. We should accept that while we may differ, we couch our differences in civility. I will give an example; do I think Segun Adeniyi is wasting his time with the Yar’ Adua government? Yes. Do I think he is an enemy of the civil society? No. The fundamental difference in our approach will be engagement versus endless and sometimes needless antagonisms.

Now, the military and the Para military establishment. Long the butt of joke amongst Nigerian civil society. Ironically, today’s Nigerian military and Para military are changing and I must say changing for the better. The emerging leadership within these groups is your former school mate and your former childhood friend, we need to engage them. The civil society alone can not save Nigeria from its present malaise. It took all three (civil, military and traditional) to get Nigeria to where we are today, it will take all three to dig Nigeria out of this hole. But this can only happen if we are working together. There will be some that will question my faith in the new Nigerian military. And they will be right; they can point to the incident last year of an admiral brutalizing a young Nigerian woman. But I insist that, that kind of behavior is not emblematic of the new Nigerian military leadership. I have spoken to several emerging leaders within the military and Para military establishments, there is a re occurring theme that runs through our conversations, these group of men and women cares about Nigeria as deeply as I do, they are passionate about change as I am, the only problem is how do we harness all of our passions together? While recognizing our differences, we ought to be able to work together to bring about the change we seek.

Our traditional institutions; they are the custodian of our traditions, norms, culture and customs. To disparage them in the belief that we are ideologically superior is to continue to be in political wilderness as we presently are. We need to court people who represent the symbols of our traditional institutions, we need to respectfully disagree with them if we find ourselves at different sides of a debate. More importantly because of their position and sometimes their age, we should seek their counsel. Trust me, the custodians of our traditions are also pained to see Nigeria the way it is. But just like the military establishment, they will be ready to partner with the civil society if we present our argument in an inclusive manner.

Now, I want to address the issue of the entrenched elites working in concert to keep Nigeria in perpetual poverty. As I have mentioned earlier, if we agree that most times these supposed entrenched elites are former friends, colleagues or may be even family, perhaps also people who have in the past expressed their dissatisfaction with the way things were in Nigeria prior to joining government, then we should agree that they are not working in concert, that beyond any parochial interests, what binds them together is their continued manipulation of the Nigerian system. Sometimes these manipulations are backed by Nigerian law itself! Tell me, what kind of law allows a security vote? The security vote is a large chunk of money that governors and the Nigerian president has at their disposal to use in cases of emergencies. However, most times, these funds are used to dispense political favours and the governors are not accountable to anyone on how these funds are dispensed. So while most Nigerian governors are making less than 2 million Naira annually, they get security votes in excess of 200 million Naira monthly! So who is fooling who? Then we have the most outrageous of all, the immunity clause, why would any sane democracy have this kind of law in its book? Why would a governor or a President after committing a criminal act, especially if the said crime is visible for everyone to see continue to serve his/her term? These are the fundamental issues that are at stake in reclaiming Nigeria. It would not make any difference if today’s agitators are given power, as long as they retain the same system, there will be little change in the lives of average Nigerians. What we need to do is to come together, agree on the fundamental issues and change the system when the opportunity arrives to do so.

This change, I believe will come from the ballot box. Nigerians have demonstrated time and again that they get it. If a persuasive argument is made on their behalf, they would not mind staying in line for hours and they will protect their votes. They have shown this in Bauchi, Kano, Lagos, Ondo and Edo states. It is up to us to honour Nigerians back if they eventually believe in our cause. What most Nigerians dislike and rightfully so is the hypocrisy of the Isa Yugudas of this world.

The folks at the Nigerian Development Movement, the Nigerian Liberty Forum led by Kayode Ogundamisi and the restoration group have begun the work that is necessary to claim Nigeria back to its rightful owners. I must warn us however, that in order to be successful, ideas have to be meshed, membership have to be inclusive and the dialogue have to be respectful despite our differences. It should also not be an avenue for politicians who have lost out in the power struggle to vent their anger, while they are most certainly welcome, their participation should be more of re appraising their past involvement in government and not just how to win power back for themselves but how to make the system work better for every Nigerian.

Back to yours truly and my two ideological brothers, in the weeks and months ahead, we will be unveiling our contribution to the task of taking Nigeria back to the public, I can assure you, we started on the premise that we do not have all the answers, that is why I encourage you to write me and tell me what we need to be doing even as we are in what I call our infant period.

“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world.
Indeed, it is the only thing that ever does” - Margaret Mead


Abdulmumin Yinka Ajia writes from Indianapolis, Indiana
abdulajia@yahoo.com

Dr. Akunyili, Drop The Rebrand Meme, Adopt National Reorientation Instead

Dr. Akunyili, Drop The Rebrand Meme, Adopt National Reorientation Instead

On this page two weeks ago, I had advocated the 36 state strategy. In it I suggested to the Minister to forget about this Rebrand Nigeria thing, adopt a national reorientation posture and make the rounds through the state capitals.

I am glad to see that her advisers are steering her in the right direction. The next phase is to drop the Rebrand meme altogether. Rebrand as a term is not applicable when you are trying to change the actions and attitudes of your own people. National reorientation is more appropriate. Because words matter, lets examine the meaning of both terms; Rebrand according to the Webster’s new millennium dictionary of the English language means “to take an improved product, rename it and market it as new”. Reorientation on the other hand means; a fresh orientation, a changed set of attitudes and beliefs, it could also be said to be an act of changing the direction in which something is oriented”. Thankfully, there are agencies in Nigeria’s past and present history that could serve as a launching pad. MAMSER and NOA readily comes to mind.

In order to reorientate Nigerians, the minister has her work cut out for her. I would advise as a first step an aggressive campaign against jumping the line, the first sign of any reorientation should be to make sure that Nigerians are able to queue up in line for service. Second, a war should be waged against indiscriminate refuse disposal. In this regard, the Minister should work with the state and local governments. A PR campaign aimed at the general public should emphasize what a clean society means for us all. A reduction in malaria, the savings in Naira and Kobo as a result of this reduction, increased productivity (less sick days) which leads to an improved GDP. Link cleanliness to economics, explain how the people are involved in the process, seek their buy in and what a change in their attitude means to the nation.

This new approach at reorientation should not however be exclusively targeted at the Nigerian public only. I reiterate that for any agenda of the Minister to be effective, she has to have a one on one with the President. While most change is often bottom up, in Nigeria change should start from top to bottom. See, Nigeria’s President and his communication Minister will not be taken seriously as long as James Ibori is seen strutting the corridors of power. As long as Michael Aondaaka is seen to be using his office as an extension of the ruling party, this President and his agendas will not be taken seriously. She should make it clear that for Nigeria to be taken seriously both at home and abroad, Nigeria needs to start playing by global rules. Bernie Madoff, prior to his conviction would not be seen parleying around with Barack Obama or George Bush before him.

And as part of the new reorientation program, the compensation package (which includes entitlements and allowances) for political office holders should be reviewed, set at reasonable limits and should be a small percentage of government revenue. While the executive and the legislature are enjoying something akin to a loot, their constituents are not that fortunate!

I still don’t understand why we have to pay so much for bureaucracy when the critical sectors are still in dire shape. The logo great people, great nation is very apt. Nigerians are indeed a great people, no other nation has been traumatized as much as Nigerians have been. The great nation part of the phrase I disagree with. I believe Nigeria is a country with a great potential, particularly in the African continent. And to a larger extent within the black Diaspora. I also believe that no legitimate black issue can be resolved without seeking Nigeria’s input. Having said all that, what is holding Nigeria back is a failure of leadership. The failure of which lies at the door step of those in government. To underscore this point, the just concluded G20 meeting proved that while Nigeria is a potential great power, she can be conveniently ignored till she gets her acts together. If Nigeria would not take her rightful place within the global community, nations such as South Africa and Ghana will fill the vacuum. This is the sad reality of today’s Nigeria.

She should state the obvious to her principal; Nigeria can not and should not continue on this path. The old ways should give way to a new era of responsibility. If she is not able to get the President’s buy in, she may as well kiss the worthy project bye – bye.

Despite all the foreseen obstacles on her path, I wish the Minister the best of luck.

How the Big Lenders Crashed the Stock Exchange and were Enabled by Dr. Soludo

Jason kew and Michael Patterson over at bloomberg.com recently did a story on the Nigerian stock exchange and how bank losses have had a profound impact on the exchange.

According to the duo, bankers (otherwise known as lenders) may be holding as much as $10 billion in toxic assets which is estimated to be almost equal to half of the entire capital of the exchange.

Now if you take into account that the lenders make up about two thirds of the Nigerian stock market, you will agree with me that as a regulator, Professor Soludo has not done a good job overseeing the banks and ensuring financial discipline. The state of the Nigerian bank is very precarious because of it.

Before I go into the disaster that is going on within the banking sector, let us first take a look at some of the reasons why the Nigerian stock exchange has moved from one of the best performing market to one of the world’s worst barely less than a decade! Perhaps, there are many reasons that led to the collapse of the exchange, I will focus on five critical areas.

Speculation: I know, most markets are speculative in nature but what was going on in Nigeria prior to 2008 was of the worst kind. A friend of mine who works in middle management for one of the so called big banks confessed to me sometime in 2007 that the insider joke is that the Nigerian stock exchange has broken all rules. What he wasn’t saying was that while this speculation was going on, the major lenders were not creating any real value within the economy which can ultimately boost the Naira and save the exchange from itself. This was a period, when the big lenders were just floating ridiculous IPOs, give it massive publicity and have unsuspecting Nigerians buy into their voodoo companies. Barely ten years ago, most of these new big banks were not even in existence. Today, they are unraveling. Posting bogus profits and fuzzy book keeping. Now lets examine the next reason why the exchange floundered terribly as it did.

Insider trading: the trading of a stock or other securities by individuals with potential access to non public information about the company. This is not only going on, the Securities and Exchange Commission has not been alive to its responsibilities. It has also been suggested that SEC employees may be conniving with some of these traders while the public bears the pains of the loss in value. Most of these insiders have continued to dump their stocks using non public information at their disposal.

Bogus balance sheets: here you will find the legally backed margin loans that allowed banks to delay booking losses. This lack of full disclosure has left investors unable to identify potential losses. In some cases, there have been rumours of outright falsified balance sheets to deceive the public. The Nigerian media have been (with the exception of a few outlets) enablers, they publish these false reports and do not engage in any investigative follow up to ascertain the health of these institutions. To round it up, these lenders are into free wheeling and shaky securities. All of these activities have put investor’s funds at risk. The last time I read, the pension fund is threatened. This is perhaps, the only retirement instrument most Nigerian civil servants have. How do you explain to a 65 year old man or woman that you have gambled away their fortune?

Now let us take a look at the disease within the Nigerian banking sector. And while we are at it, let’s examine the activities of the bureau de change.

Sometime in March, specifically March 21, Soludo arbitrarily curbed the lending rate at 22% and the deposit rate at 15% respectively. But you and I know that this is not going to happen. What will eventually happen will be a form of shadow banking, sadly it is already being practiced in Nigeria and this will only exacerbate it.

Presently, Nigeria has a law that requires the banks to notify some security agency or the other if a cash lump sum is being deposited at once. What the banks actually does is to have the customer deposit all the amounts in bits, in order to evade this legal provision.

This arbitrary lending and deposit cap will only give rise to one thing, back room dealing between the customer and the bank. You think that our banks are in a bad shape right now, that will push them to the precipice.

Then you have the bureau de change. I still don’t understand why the CBN has its own exchange rate and then you have the real market, where 80% of the foreign exchange transactions occur and the price is sharply different. Presently, there is about a N20 difference in the rate between the CBN and the parallel market. If you think N20 is insignificant, wait until you buy 1 million dollars @ N144 to a dollar from the CBN and take a walk down the street to the bureau de change and sell in the parallel market for N165 to a dollar. Tell me, what kind of business will give you so much instant return and at a very high percentage profit? So this is what is at stake. Why wouldn’t Soludo abolish the official rate and allow the banks to sell foreign exchange to anyone (with identification) at the market rate? The CBN should also be able to sell to the banks at the prevailing market rate minus one Naira (leaving a margin for profit). Soludo has refused to tow this line. Why? Because the status quo is beneficial to all of them (players within the Nigerian financial industry) you buy cheap from the CBN, you cross the street and sell high and you go to the bank smiling. In the process, you haven’t really created any value to the economy. While these financial tricksters line their pockets, the Nigerian economy and the general public bears the brunt of their nefarious ways.

And we also have cases, where lenders have written out huge loans without any significant collateral. It is risky behaviour and ultimately we are witnessing the unraveling albeit in a sad way. These kinds of behaviours have put genuine investor’s life savings in a toilet.

I am not going to even dabble into the activities of the illegal micro finance institutions that mushroomed between 2006 and 2007. Where was Soludo when all these illegal activities were going on? Nigerians lost millions of Naira to this fraud, the CBN responded a little too late.

This kind of behaviour is emblematic of the kind of leadership that Soludo has provided at his perch as Nigeria’s treasury chief. You can not be a regulator and at the same time parleying around with the same people you are supposed to regulate. Rather than consider him for a reappointment, Soludo should be allowed to go back into the ivory tower to finesse his economic theory (I would suggest to him to decide whether he wants to be a free trader or not), perhaps some day in the not too distant future, he can become the conscience of the nation like prize wining economist and Nobel Laurent Paul Krugman.

And while we are shopping for a new treasury chief, one name stands shoulder above the rest; Dr Ngozi Okonjo Iweala. The talk of Isa Yuguda is not only petty but absurd.

Post Script: I am aware that Professor Soludo is not the Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, however it is instructive to note that because of weak treasury regulation, the banks are the worst offenders in the exchange. The lenders are supposed to be under Dr. Soludo’s supervision and if they had acted ethically at the exchange we could have been spared this ugly scenario. And yes, while the failure of the exchange will be laid at the door step of the SEC chairman, the banks attitude is as a result of a weak central bank regulation.